European aircraft manufacturer Airbus is predicting a turnaround in the bellwether aviation sector as early as next year, and a return to strong growth in 2011, the Australian reported.
Airbus chief operating officer customers John Leahy made the prediction in Hamburg as he outlined an analysis by the plane maker of world airline traffic.
The analysis is more optimistic than forecasts from the International Air Transport Association, perhaps because it includes trends for airlines, such as low-cost carriers, ignored by IATA.
Leahy said Airbus's best case was that world air traffic would be down by two percent this year and return to growth next year.
Its worst-case scenario, involving a deeper downturn, would put traffic growth at minus four percent, with no growth next year and a rise in 2011.
Airbus did not know where the trend would fall but was confident it would be between the two forecasts.
The European manufacturing giant's gross orders for aircraft have plummeted from 900 aircraft last year to just 30 so far this year and Leahy conceded Airbus was unlikely to meet its target of 300 sales.
Airbus, which has historically tended to keep production rates during recessions rather than slash the number of planes it makes, still expects to produce more than 480 aircraft this year.
Leahy said Airbus lost about 12 percent of its backlog in the three years after the 2001 terrorists attacks in the US and it was possible that could happen again, although he doubted it would be that high. Airbus had a backlog of 3500 aircraft. |
|
|
Source: cargonewsasia
|
|
