Boeing predicts long-term global aircargo traffic to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4 percent over the next 20 years, according to the Boeing 2009 Current Market Outlook.
In its annual outlook released today in London, the US plane maker has forecast a US$3.2 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next two decades that will require 29,000 passenger and freighter aircraft.
In line with anticipated long-term trade growth, this will lead to overall cargo traffic nearly tripling over the period. A shift toward larger freighters and new, more efficient airplanes will help keep air cargo transport affordable.
This year's forecast reflects near-term contractions in both world industrial production and overall international trade. World aircargo traffic fell about six percent in 2008 compared to 2007 levels. An expected 11 percent drop in global industrial production likely will lead to a further cargo traffic reduction in 2009.
"Despite the near-term slowdown, we remain confident in the strength of the global aircargo market over the long haul," said Randy Tinseth, vice-president marketing, for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. .
"The air cargo industry is supported by sound fundamentals 每 the imperative for speed, consumer product innovation and global industrial interdependence are key drivers 每 and new air trade routes will expand service coverage."
During the forecast period, the world freighter fleet is expected to increase from 1,940 to 3,250 airplanes 每 an increase of two-thirds. This growth will require 2,760 freighters worth $170 billion at today's cataloge prices.
Additions to the fleet will include 710 new-production freighters and 2,050 airplanes converted from passenger models.
Large (more than 88.2 tons/80 tonnes capacity) freighters will account for 490 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons/40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 210 airplanes.
Demand for new freighter airplanes is driven by gains in operational efficiency and reliability, improved environmental performance and response to regulations governing noise, emissions and aging airplanes.
Over the next 20 years, passenger and cargo airlines will take delivery of:
- Regional Jets: 2,100 units ($70 billion) 每 Declining segment as airlines "up-gauge" to single-aisles due to capacity, economic and environmental restraints;
- Single-Aisles: 19,460 units ($1.42 trillion) 每 Largest segment by units;
- Twin-Aisles: 6,700 units ($1.51 trillion) 每 Largest segment by investment;
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Source: cargonewsasia
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