ANALYSTS at HSH Nordbank in Hamburg predict in a recently released survey that global air cargo trade will grow in the long-term by seven per cent annually, with Asia seeing the strongest growth.
The Nordbank study said the airfreight market would continue to be one of the global growth sectors over the next few years.
It pointed out that 40 per cent of global trade, in the terms of value, moves by air, and routes that experienced the strongest growth in revenue-ton kilometres (RTK) served the Asia Pacific-Europe/North America trade.
"As a consequence of further production relocations and above-average growth prospects for the region, it is expected that by the year 2025 almost 63 per cent of all exports and imports will originate in, or be destined for, Asia/Pacific," said Nordbank analyst Claudia Erdmann.
The Chinese airfreight market will drive growth in Asia, said report that expected China's domestic demand to experience 11 per cent annual growth over 20 years.
With regard to freight rates, the survey said it expects rates to still come under pressure. Nordbank analysts said in the International Airfreight Study: "The downtrend in freight rates has decelerated. The slump in rates of the past few years has been halted thanks to surcharges."
The survey also said that the largest airfreight carrier is FedEx in terms of RTK at 15.145 billion, followed by Air France-KLM with a total of 10.571 billion RTK.
Demand for mega-sized aircraft will grow, said the study, saying that 4,000 freighters will be in use by 2025.
Analysts expected the use of small carriers to decline from 42 per cent of the market to 36 per cent by 2026, and the proportion of medium-sized and mega-carriers in operation within the global fleet to increase to around 31 and 33 per cent respectively.
The report said of the 1,980 aircraft in use today, 1,350 will be decommissioned by 2026, spawning demand for 3,350 new planes, three-quarters of which will be converted passenger aircraft with 870 being newbuilds, of which 70 per cent will be mega-carriers".
The process of consolidation among cargo airports worldwide is also expected to continue, with the transportation business in the past few years having shifted to a small number of cargo airports. "Fifty per cent of the cargo carried worldwide is focused on a total of 23 airports," said Ms Erdmann.
The world's largest cargo airports are Hong Kong, Memphis and Anchorage. The airports in Asia and in the Near East recorded the sharpest growth, the study said. It noted that the largest cargo airport is being established in Dubai with an estimated handling capacity of 12 million tons. Some EUR25 billion (US$36.6 billion) are being invested in the Middle East. In Germany, 65 per cent of all airfreight transport is handled through Frankfurt am Main.
More spending on security and the environment is also foreseen. The report added that the aviation sector is hoping that deregulation of airfreight will stimulate growth, noting that last year the EU signed an Open Sky Agreement with the US to grant comprehensive freedom rights to the airlines. This year, the Single European Sky Initiative will be implemented to create joint air space within Europe.
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