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Economist: growth in India set for a big slowdown
POSTED: 10:04 a.m. EDT, April 5,2007

India's economic growth will slow "significantly" this year and higher interest rates will reduce inflation, according to the Asian Development Bank's top economist.

The country's expansion will also be held back by a lack of infrastructure such as ports, roads and power generation, said Ifzal Ali, chief economist at the ADB.

Gross domestic product will probably grow about 8 percent, down from 9.2 percent last year, he added. China, by contrast, won't slow much, he said.

"We expect Indian growth to cool down significantly in the coming two years," Ali, 58, said in an interview in Washington. "In the process, I think inflation will be ironed out."

The Reserve Bank of India is pushing borrowing costs higher to stem a surge in bank lending and contain inflation, which continues to exceed the central bank's forecasts, Bloomberg News said. Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy unexpectedly lifted the benchmark rate to 7.75 percent on March 30, the highest in more than four years.

"I'd be very cautious about the hype coming out of India," Ali said. "With increasing incomes, the demand for food items is going up. The country cannot respond," which suggests it is "reaching capacity constraints."

China, the world's fourth-biggest economy, will grow at a rate of about 9 percent "in the medium term," Ali said. Efforts to rein in fixed investment, interest-rate increases and repeated steps to reduce excess liquidity will take time to work, he cautioned.

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