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China GDP Seen up 10.8% Yr-on-Yr, CPI up 3.0% in Q2
POSTED: 1:58 p.m. EDT, May 8,2007

China's economy is estimated to expand by 10.8 pct year-on-year in Q2 with consumer prices rising 3.0 pct, according to the State Information Center (SIC).

In a report published in the official China Securities Journal, the SIC said it expects overall fixed-asset investment (FAI) and urban FAI to rise by 24 pct and 26 pct year-on-year, respectively, in the three months to June.

The think-tank sees exports rising 22.6 pct during the current quarter and imports up 19.7 pct, with the trade surplus coming in at 52.4 bln usd.

Industrial value-added output is projected to rise 17.5 pct in the second quarter, with retail sales up 14.7 pct.

For the first half of the year, SIC expects gross domestic product to expand by 11.0 pct and the consumer price index to grow around 2.9 pct.

Fixed-asset investment is seen rising 23.9 pct during the six-month period with urban fixed-asset investment up 25.7 pct. Exports are expected to rise 25 pct and imports are likely to increase 19 pct, SIC said.

Industrial value-added output should grow 17.8 pct, and retail sales by 14.8 pct.

The broad measure of money supply, or M2, is estimated to expand by 17.2 pct year-on-year at the end of June, with M1 and M0 up 19.5 pct and 16.5 pct, respectively, the think-tank said.

SIC said excessive liquidity is leading to higher asset prices and suggested the central bank can take measures to control money supply by raising benchmark interest rates and reserve requirement of commercial banks as well as scrapping interest tax.

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