Port trucking rates in Southern California are set to increase as much as 80 percent as anti-pollution plans move forward, a transportation economist says.

Those plans will push up shippers' costs, but also clear the way for projects that could triple container volume at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach over the next 20 years.

John Husing, an economist in Redlands, Californina, says the ports' plan to reduce diesel emissions from approximately 16,000 drayage trucks will cost US$1.1 billion in its first year. That includes about $212 million to retrofit the 37 percent of the existing fleet eligible for retrofitting, and $850 million to replace the remaining trucks with 2007 model-year vehicles.

Where will the money come from? In part from shippers, Husing said in a cost analysis prepared for the ports.

He estimates drayage rates will have to increase 80 percent to cover costs of new and upgraded equipment. The drayage rate to warehouses in the Los Angeles-Long Beach area will increase to $270 from $150. Trucking rates to California's Inland Empire, about 50 miles from the harbour, will increase to $540 from $300.

Husing said the existing net wage of about $12 an hour for drivers, mostly owner-operators, will have to increase to $20.

These cost increases aren't all smoke and rear-view mirrors. Other regulations will combine to push costs even higher.

"The first thing you have to look at is (the Transportation Worker Identification Credential)," Husing said. "When that goes into effect, the driver shortage will worsen. As trade continues to grow and more containers need to be moved, the driver shortage will worsen. Those facts alone are going to push up the costs."

Husing said the increase in drayage rates won't doom the expansion of distribution centres there.

"Trade will continue to grow, and containers will have to be moved," he said. "The truck rate increase will still be a small percentage of the value of the goods inside the box."