The market for Metro vehicles is continuing to grow dynamically worldwide: in the coming five years, the railway-industry specialist consultancy firm SCI Verkehr expects a high growth of around 10% annually despite a currently high market volume. China, as largest market (35% of the current worldwide market volume for new procurements) will continue to grow at 9% p.a., and double-digit growth rates are expected in Russia, India, the USA and Saudi Arabia. The market development for new procurements in Europe is continuing to develop solidly despite the ongoing crisis of public authorities, driven by necessary replacement procurements to ensure urban mobility. Chinese manufacturers dominate the world market: besides the large domestic demand in China, CNR and CSR are managing to increasingly target export successes worldwide.
Global urbanisation is the decisive driver for demand. The number of cities and their average size are constantly increasing. Alongside this, metro systems have grown constantly as the backbone for secure mobility. In 2013 there were 152 metro systems in operation worldwide, compared to only 107 in 2000 and 84 in 1990. In addition existing systems have been and continue to be continually expanded. This distinguishes the market for metro vehicles from almost all other markets in railway engineering, in which there are always phases of comprehensive line closures or system shutdowns. The growth potential for new construction of metro systems is and will remain enormous, since around 150 metropolises-above all in Asia and Africa/Middle East-do not yet have any metro system, and are therefore suffering from growing transport problems.
In 2013, c.10 900 km of metro network were in operation. In the base case scenario, SCI Verkehr expects that c.4 800 km of additional lines will begin operation by 2018 and another 5 200 km by 2025. Growth will be substantially carried by Asia, in particular China followed by India, according to SCI Verkehr GmbH.