Traffic at major United States retail container ports was down in September, but is expected to set another record in October before the conclusion of peak season, says the October Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation, a retail trade association, and Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial information.

The U.S.-based ports surveyed in the monthly report) including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah) handled a cumulative 1.41 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) of container traffic in September—the most recent month for which data is available. This was less than August’s 1.44 million TEUs by 1.2 percent, but it exceeded the volume in September 2005 by 5.2 percent. September’s total almost identically matched the prediction of 1.41 million TEUs.

Based on previous Port Tracker reports, the September decline was anticipated, according to Paul Bingham, Global Insight economist.

“The month-to-month pattern [in TEU volumes] predicted and observed does confirm the performance of our models in picking up this pattern as it has developed during the last few years, with shippers moving towards earlier peak season importing during the summer,” said Bingham. “The October peak is behind us now, and weekly volumes are in decline compared with last month now.”

And as peak season comes to an end, Bingham noted that most port networks are operating in a congestion-free environment. There are still a few spots of short-term duration delays at the tail end of peak season delivery, he said, such as some of the inland intermodal railyards where locomotive shortages or equipment shortages are still evident on a daily basis.

“Shippers have been able to cope with the tight rail system conditions all through this year's peak season because they have adopted operating practices that allow for the not-infrequent extra delivery time to inland distribution centers when using intermodal rail service,” said Bingham.

He added that the diversification of port selection used for importing has also continued to be an important delay risk reduction strategy used by shippers. Many shippers made less use of port diversification this year than last, he said, as concerns with port performance eased, especially as the Southern California ports improved terminal operating practices to prevent congestion from reoccurring.

“This has resulted in a rebound in import market share to Southern California away from several other U.S. gateway ports such as in Puget Sound and some South Atlantic ports,” said Bingham.

Bingham said there will be continued growth next year that will produce higher volumes. But he cautioned that the national pace of growth will be slower than this year, and this deceleration in port volume growth will mirror slower import demand growth, with the economy predicted to be growing at a slower pace next year.

“The forecast is still for continued growth in containerized imports at levels faster than the economy as a whole,” said Bingham. “Only a recession in the U.S. economy, which we are not predicting, would produce an actual downturn in U.S. containerized import volume. The pressure to minimize production costs and to leverage global supply chain opportunities for competitive advantage continues. This translates into faster growth in containerized trade volumes than in most other segments of the transportation system, and continued pressure on transportation carriers and the container ports to handle the traffic.”

The October Port Tracker report predicts that October’s volume will come in at 1.45 million TEUs—a 5.8 percent increase from October 2005. November, December, January, and February are forecasted at 1.33 million TEUs, 1.29 million TEUs. 1.24 million TEUs, and 1.18 million TEUs, respectively.