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WEF releases scenario study on GCC countries' future
POSTED: 9:21 a.m. EDT, May 20,2007

The World Economic Forum on Saturday released its latest regional scenario study which examines three possible futures for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

The report, titled "the GCC Countries and the World: Scenarios to 2025", presents three possible scenarios for the region over the next 20 years: Oasis, Sandstorm and The Fertile Gulf. The Oasis describes a scenario where regional stability continues to be a challenge for the GCC countries, but they are nevertheless able to achieve substantial institutional reforms.

Under this pattern, the GCC countries develop strong identities and work together to coordinate diplomatic and economic policies through technocratic governance and a stronger internal market. The Sandstorm scenario describes a future where regional instability is the defining factor affecting the ability of the GCC countries to effectively carry out much-needed institutional reforms.

This scenario sees a number of conflicting factors that make the surrounding region significantly turbulent, including conflict between the United States and Iran, and spillover of violence from Iraq.

The Fertile Gulf describes the rise of the GCC countries as innovation hubs in a global environment characterized by robust demand for energy and increasing globalization.

Regional stability gives the GCC countries the opportunity to focus on enhancing their human capital at all levels, investing heavily in education while proceeding carefully with political and institutional reforms to support their growing economies and societies

"Over the next 20 years the region will continue to draw the world's attention not just in terms of energy security, but also due to its fast-growing capital markets and innovative cities," said Nicholas Davis who co-managed the project.

"The world needs to anticipate what forces may throw the region off track, and what opportunities exist to help the GCC countries and the broader Middle East region exceed our expectations," he added.

Established in 1981, GCC is a regional political and economic alliance aimed at enhancing cooperation among its six member states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman.

From:xinhua
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