Philippine Export Growth Probably Quickens on Semiconductors-Business

Philippine export growth probably accelerated in October as overseas customers stocked up on electronics for the year-end festive season.

Overseas sales increased 15.7 percent from a year earlier, after climbing 13.2 percent in September, according to the median forecast of six economists in a Bloomberg survey. The figures will be released tomorrow at 9 a.m. in Manila.

``We expect exports to bounce back in October after slowing in September,'' said David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. ``The Christmas season is a strong driver for demand.''

Rising demand for digital music players and the latest mobile phones that surf the Internet is fueling orders for Asia's electronic manufacturers and component makers, driving growth in the region's export-driven economies. President Gloria Arroyo is aiming this year to double to 10 percent the nation's growth in exports, two-thirds of which are semiconductors.

Philippine exports increased 16.4 percent in the first nine months of 2006 from the same period a year earlier, with a record gain of 26.3 percent in March.

``Exports will continue to grow at a double-digit pace, although not as high as 20 percent as we've seen in earlier months,'' Cohen said. ``That would still be a healthy pace and I don't think anyone is complaining.''

Some retailers overseas may have increased their orders in October, in anticipation of increasing demand as people buy Christmas gifts for friends and relatives, Cohen said.

Japan household spending on cellular phones rose 5.4 percent in October from a year ago, while purchases of home electric appliances gained 10.5 percent, the government's statistics bureau in Tokyo said on Dec. 5.

The following table shows economists' estimates for the percentage change in Philippine exports and imports in October from a year earlier:

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                          Exports
Firm                        YoY
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Median                      15.7%
Average                     15.0%
High                        17.5%
Low                         10.0%
Number                         6
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Action Economics            17.5%
CIMB-GK Research            16.4%
Forecast Singapore          15.0%
HSBC                        14.0%
Ideaglobal                  17.3%
Thomson IFR                 10.0%
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