Import volume at major retail container ports in the US is expected to drop 8.4 percent in February from the same time last year as the shipping cycle reaches its slowest month of the year.
"Ports and distribution centers are getting the break they deserve after the busy holiday season, but it won't last long," said Jonathan Gold, National Retail Federation vice-president for supply chain and customs policy, as the monthly Global Port Tracker report was released today by the NRF and Hackett Associates.
"Retailers will be moving spring merchandise toward their shelves in just a few weeks, and early numbers point to a busy season ahead."
US ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.3 million TEUs in December, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available.
That was down 3.3 percent from November as the holiday season came to an end but up 0.6 percent from December 2012. The December numbers brought 2013 to a total of 16.2 million TEUs, up 2.3 percent from 2012's 15.8 million TEUs.
January was estimated at 1.37 million TEUs, up 4.5 percent from January 2013. February, historically the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.17 million TEUs, down 8.4 percent from the same month last year. March is forecast at 1.29 million TEUs, up 13.7 percent from last year; April at 1.39 million TEUs, up 6.9 percent; May at 1.45 million TEUs, up 4.2 percent; and June at 1.43 million TEUs, up 5.6 percent.
Those numbers would total 8.1 million TEUs for the first half of the year, up 4.3 percent over last year.
The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting 4.1 percent sales growth in 2014, contingent on how Washington policies on economic issues affect consumer confidence.
"On the consumer side, there is continued hesitancy in spending as net disposable income remains virtually flat," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. "As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio remains stubbornly high."
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