The large number of newbuildings between 8,000 and 10,000 TEU that have recently been ordered appears excessive, according to Drewry Maritime Research.
By the end of this year, 55 vessels averaging 8,600 TEU will have been delivered, raising the sector's capacity by 18 per cent, well ahead of global cargo growth.
Forty more are scheduled for delivery in 2014, which will increase the capacity by another 11.6 per cent. And a further 45 units are due for delivery in 2015, adding yet another 11.6 per cent year-on-year growth.
An extra 20 existing vessels in the size range are expected to become surplus to requirements once the proposed P3 Alliance's Asia-North Europe services are merged in the second quarter of 2014.
Adding to the capacity glut will be another 44 vessels averaging 14,638 TEU that are slated for delivery next year, which will most probably lead to the same number of ships between 8,000 TEU and 10,000 TEU being displaced, said Drewry.
On the demand side, the P3 alliance will probably need at least 30 units for its five transatlantic services from the second quarter, although Maersk/MSC/CMA CGM's intentions have yet to be confirmed.
The supply of vessels between 8,000 TEU and 10,000 TEU looks set to well exceed demand growth, so where the excess will be deployed is intriguing, said Drewry analysts.
There is no immediate home for the vessels outside of the east-west tradelanes, including 21 units ordered by Hamburg Sud, CSAV and CCNI, which will presumably be deployed.
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