With US trade still in the doldrums and expected to remain stagnant for some time, most post-panamax newbuildings delivered in the next two years will be heading for the Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trades, according to a PR News Service newbuildings survey of the top three shipping lines-Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM.
The survey also noted that even if the Asia-Indian sub-continent-Arabian Gulf trade does stand up to new capacity injection of 5,000+ TEU vessels, it is unlikely that vessels over 8,000 TEUs will be deployed in the region in the foreseeable future.
Maersk's newbuilding programme for post-panamax tonnage is predominantly centred on a 2008/early 2009 delivery programme of 12 vessels, and then the newbuildings drop dramatically to just seven vessels over 2010 and the first half of 2011.
Maersk has got to the end of its inheritance of the P&O Nedlloyd post-panamax orderbook, and everything now is Maersk booked, ordered or chartered.
Margrethe, the first of Maersk's six 10,000 TEU newbuildings, was recently phased in to the Asia-North Europe AE2 service, and the remaining five vessels from the Danish shipyard Odense will be delivered in three-month intervals. All the vessels will be deployed on the Asia-Europe trade. The delivery programme of these vessels runs up to April 2009, with the next out of the starting blocks being Marchen in late June.
Maersk will also receive from June to November five 8,400 TEU newbuildings from Korean shipyards Daewoo and Hyundai. The first of these, Savannah, will be phased into the Asia-Europe AE10 service in mid-June, and the last of the five in November.
There is a big gap in 2009 for Maersk with only two of the last of the 10,000 TEU vessels being delivered. The newbuilding programme for post-panamax vessels only picks up again in the second half of 2010 when Edinburgh, the first of eight 13,000 TEU vessels, is delivered and heads for the Asia-North Europe lane. The Edinburgh and the other seven vessels are being chartered on a long-term basis by Rickmers Linie.
The PR News Service database, reveals the Mediterranean Shipping Co's post-panamax newbuildings orderbook is far more extensive than Maerk's and comprises no less than 39 vessels, all over 12,000 TEU capacity. Unlike Maersk, MSC's delivery schedule focuses more on the years 2009/2010/2011 with only two 13,200 TEU vessels expected to be handed over this year.
MSC's 2009 delivery programme comprises 12 vessels of 13,000 to 13,200 TEU capacity. In 2010, there will be eight deliveries in the 12,000/13,000 TEU range, and in 2011, 17 deliveries of the same capacity range.
MSC's Asia-Europe-Mediterranean coverage currently centres on four major services-the Silk Express, Lion Service, Dragon Express and Tiger Service. The first three use 8,000+ TEU vessels, while the last serves the Black Sea and uses 6,500 TEU vessels.
The Silk, Lion and Dragon services would most likely swallow up most of MSC's post-panamax newbuildings, with a possible cascade of 8,000+ TEU vessels to the Black Sea service, further freeing up capacity for any additional Asia-Europe service that may be planned. Effectively, that means within three years, MSC will be running its three main Asia-Europe-Med strings with 12,000+ TEU vessels, 50 percent up on the present figure.
With 39 vessels in this capacity frame on order, the deployment of the other nine or so vessels-given MSC runs an Asia-Europe string with 10 ships-begs more answers, as it is unlikely the main Black Sea ports will be equipped to handle these Leviathans at quayside.
CMA CGM's newbuilding programme is even more extensive, according to PR News Service, with 51 ships on order in the post-panamax league through to 2012. Four 9,660 TEU vessels will be delivered this year and will be deployed on the Asia-Europe FAL 4 service with China Shipping.
Next year, 18 vessels ranging from 6,500 to 11,400 TEUs will be delivered, and even though CMA CGM together with MSC and Maersk has recently set up a new vessel sharing agreement to cover the transpacific with 8,000+ TEU vessels, it is unlikely that 2009 will provide the opportunity to deploy the six vessels in this capacity frame which are expected to be delivered next year.
CMA CGM's post-panamax orderbook shows 20 deliveries of 8,000 TEU plus vessels in 2010, four of 12,000 TEUs in 2011 and five of the same size in 2012.
In total, the world's top three lines will have 109 vessels aggregating over 1.1 million TEUs delivered by the end of 2011, and most, if not all, of these ships will be heading for Europe.
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