Major American container ports have emerged from a four-month slump in December to exceed the previous year's monthly level for the first time since mid-summer, according to the Port Tracker report.
But the report from the US National Retail Federation, and the Global Insight consultants, who prepared it, said there would be a year-on-year 5.5 per cent shortfall in February, if estimates proved correct, followed by a 6.3 per cent uptick in March and another rise of 8.1 per cent in April followed by another year-on-year increase in May of 4.4 per cent.
Ports surveyed were Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah and Houston.
"Month-to-month numbers are declining as we head into the winter slow season, but we're starting to see increases again when year-to-year numbers are compared," said retail federation vice president Jonathan Gold.
The ports surveyed handled 1.38 million TEU in November, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The figure marked a 4.4 per cent decrease from October's 1.44 million TEU, and 2.2 per cent decline from November 2006. August was down 1.4 per cent, September 1.9 per cent and October 3.5 per cent, the report said.
December, however, was estimated at 1.35 million TEU, a year on year increase of 3.3 per cent.
January 2008 is forecast at 1.31 million TEU, up 1.8 per cent from January 2007. February is expected to be down from February 2007 to 1.24 million TEU as March is expected to rise to 1.35 million TEU, with April rising to 1.43 million TEU and May edging up to 1.44 million TEU.
Rail performance is said to be suffering in the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest owing to poor weather conditions, which have caused delays in intermodal rail service in the northwest. Class 1 intermodal railroad container volumes are described as remaining "weak" due to the sluggish economy. Port Tracker said as long as "there are no other unusual weather related disruptions over the next six months, rail system train performance is expected to be adequate and actually improve".
With regard to haulage trucks, no significant disruption is expected in the next six months from the Transportation Worker Identity Credential (TWIC) programme. Furthermore, the new clean-truck port trucking regulations from port authorities of Los Angeles and Long Beach is not expected to impact until later in 2008, it said.
In February, Long Beach and Los Angeles are forecast to handle 9.9 per cent fewer containers than in January. Oakland is expected fall in February too, with first half volumes dropping 0.5 per cent below the first six months of the previous year. Tacoma should fall 29 per cent in February from last September's peak. First half volumes are expected to be down 3.8 per cent year on year.
Seattle is expected to be down 4.7 per cent in January from the peak last August, falling a full 23.5 per cent in January. Vancouver, Washington, is expected to have a month-to-month drop of 9 per cent in February. Houston's monthly TEU fall of 1.2 per cent through February will be down 20 per cent from the August peak, but volume is likely to recover in March.
New York and New Jersey in February is to have 3.8 per cent growth compared with January's volume, yet be down 11.3 per cent compared with its August peak. Hampton Roads is expected to fall of 2.6 per cent monthly and be 17.9 per cent lower than its October peak. Charleston's February traffic volume is to increase 0.5 per cent over January, and be down 21 per cent from its June peak. Savannah is likely to be down 2.9 per cent from January's level. This traffic should be down 24.5 per cent from its October peak, the report added.
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