Prices for residual bunker fuel could reach $600 per metric tonne (pmt) in 2008, according to a leading observer of the marine fuels market. "Without any significant reduction in crude prices marine bunker fuel will likely remain in the $500 per tonne range, but $600 is certainly possible," said Rudolph Kassinger, a senior fuel consultant with DNV Petroleum Services (DNVPS). Writing in the maritime news service Lloyd's List he said the bunker market reached a turning point in 2007. "Last year fuel prices and their volatility, the introduction of environmental constraints on fuel composition and the threat of ever more stringent regulations were the pre-eminent issues," he said. He added that the full impact of more stringent environmental controls could not be predicted now, but that they were likely to be profound.
Turning his attention to Sulphur Emissions Control Areas (SECAs), he said the low sulphur fuels used in the SECAs had "from time to time exhibited quality deficiencies, including poor ignition and combustion quality, higher levels of abrasives - catalytic fines - and poor fuel stability."
He went on: "There is now insufficient data to determine if this will be a short-lived phenomenon or a regular risk associated with low percentage sulphur fuel.
"We suspect it has something to do with the lack of familiarity with blending low sulphur fuels, as well as the selection of residues and blend stocks to achieve the stipulated sulphur limit."
There are two SECAs currently in force; extending from the English Channel, through the North Sea, to the Baltic. Ships sailing through SECA waters need to ensure the fuel they burn has a sulphur content of 1.5% or less.
Kassinger suggested that if low sulphur residual bunker fuel became more widespread, sulphur content could displace viscosity and density "as the parameter that controls blend composition."
DNVPS is a leading fuel testing agency.
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