Rapid hikes in air freight fuel surcharges over the last year have prompted increased logistics industry discussion about the switching ¨C actual or potential ¨C of more traffic from that mode to sea freight.
Some business has of course always moved backwards and forwards between the two modes, depending on shipper requirements at the time. This year, though, a number of airlines operating in the Asia-Europe and Asia-North America markets, in particular, have publicly voiced concern that a more general switch from air to sea freight has become apparent.
However, not all senior airline cargo industry executives totally go along with that view. Speaking at a Lufthansa Cargo press briefing headed 'Meet the Trends' held in Frankfurt earlier this week, that carrier's executive board member product and sales, Dr Andreas Otto, played down such suggestions.
"Do we see a threat coming from sea freight? I personally must say I am not sure yet. We rather believe that on a worldwide basis, air freight will not be threatened by sea freight," he stated.
"There might be some exceptions, particularly if you are based in a big hub like Dubai where there are major air and sea gateways close together. But from a Lufthansa Cargo perspective, since we are not based in Dubai, we have not been threatened by sea freight this year."
Joining in the discussion, the principal and managing director of German consultancy Aviainform, which helped with the research for the 'Meet the Trends' document and briefing, suggested it was important to realise that when it came to forecasting new markets, for example, the value of products which might be suitable for shipment by air was lower than many people might suppose.
"Previous research of trade patterns has suggested that commodities with a value greater than US$16 per kilo could potentially be transported by air," stated Dirk Steiger. "It has not only been proven on our side but also with clients of Boeing Commercial that in particular markets where you have either no reliable or late official figures and/or no sources such as IATA CASS, this rule works out fairly precisely when it comes to determining future (air freight) potential."
One example of a market or trade lane in that context, he suggested, was that between mainland China, specifically the Yellow River and Pearl River regions, and Central Africa.
|
