Traffic at the nation's major retail container ports dropped below last year's levels for the second month in a row in September, and is expected to continue either flat or below last year's levels for the remainder of the peak shipping season, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.
"Container traffic is expected to continue at a slow pace due to weakness in the U.S. economy," Paul Bingham, an economist with the economic consulting firm Global Insight. "Volumes will continue to decline, but all ports are rated low for congestion, as are truck and rail operations."
"The low volumes at the ports reflect retailers' cautious expectations for sales during the holiday season," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "These numbers show that retailers are carefully managing their inventories so that supply won't exceed demand."
Ports surveyed handled 1.46 million TEUs of container traffic in September, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That's down about 6,000 containers, or 0.4 percent, from August, and 1.9 percent from September 2006. (August 2007 was down 1.4 percent from August 2006.)
While cautioning that Port Tracker only tracks inbound container traffic at the ports of most important to retailers, Bingham noted there has been about a 2 percent shift in traffic from the West Coast to East Coast -- with considerable variation among ports.
He said there may be several causes of this including higher intermodal rates, caution by retailers who had to contend with congestion at West Coast ports in past years, and the ability of East Coast ports such as Savannah and Norfolk to attract additional distribution centers to their region.
Port Tracker estimates that October, traditionally the peak month of the year as retailers rush to stock shelves for the holidays, was estimated 3,300 containers short of the record high of 1.51 million TEUs set in October 2006, or a year-to-year decline of 0.2 percent.
November traffic will be essentially flat at 1.41 million TEU, about 200 containers short of November 2006, the report said. December will see a year-to-year gain of 6.4 percent, January will be up 5.9 percent, and February down 1.3 percent, the service predicted.
All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker -- Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast -- are all rated "low" for congestion, the same as last month.
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