International trade is expected to be back on track in 2014, according to the statistics provided by the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
As the Director-General of WTO Roberto Azevedo pointed out in Geneva recently, trade growth has been lethargic in recent years - and 2013 did not break that trend since growth slowed to 2.1 per cent, which is a slight deceleration in real volume terms.
However, prospects for 2014 and 2015 are more encouraging. For 2014, world trade is expected to rise by 4.7 per cent, based on WTO forecasts. For 2015, based on longer-term assumptions, WTO has forecast a growth of 5.3 per cent. If this is achieved, then it would bring the growth rate in line with the 20-year average.
The 2015 and 2014 forecasts are based on assumptions of other factors, such as gross domestic product growth, but if proved right, they would put international trade back on track.
This bodes well for India, which has been trying hard to sustain export growth through several ways. There has been, over the last many years, an attempt to provide incentives to export through the trade policy route that includes incentives for accessing new markets and exporting special products.
Given the fact that there is a need to look at some specific issues to boost export performance, the new incumbent at Udyog Bhawan may want to look at some ways and means to channel resources for better export performance.
The two macro points that they may want to focus on includes moving Indian exports up the value chain, and building policies that help companies, especially medium-sized firms, enter global value chains. Both these steps will help sustain exports and sudden shocks may not hurt the overall export performance.
First, the removal of all local taxes in the export product has to be an important focus point for the government. Hopefully, the roll-out of the Goods and Services Tax soon will help address this issue in a better way. As of now, most products suffer from the addition of taxes that cannot be fully refunded before a product is exported, thereby eroding competence in international markets.
Second, there is an urgent need to completely modify India's trade policy document. It has to move from an incentive-driven policy to a facilitation-driven policy that benefits value addition. The focus has to be on trade-facilitation measures rather than primarily on providing sops for exports. Incentivising exports should be replaced by enabling exports through a simple and transparent policy process that cuts down transaction costs for exporters, especially the small- and medium-sized firms.
Third, there is a need for greater acceptance of self-regulation by exporters. Though considerable progress has been achieved towards this goal, there is a need for making this a norm rather than an exception.
Fourth, there is a need to link our policy to international trade agreements. The aspects of a trade-facilitation agreement that will be put in place due to the consensus among WTO members at the Bali Ministerial meeting of the multilateral trade body, should be reflected in the trade policy document of the country.
For this, there is an urgent need for better co-ordination between the commerce and finance ministries. While a lot of steps have been taken to make the co-ordination easier and simpler, there is a need for a lot of thought in this area, keeping in mind the development of a strong export basket in the coming decade or so.
The role of the finance ministry will also be important in case of the financing possibilities available to exporters. There is a need for a concerted effort on the part of the government to simplify the process of providing finance to exporters at internationally available rates.
Trade has to be seen as an engine of growth for the economy that can help create employment and opportunities. As Azevedo pointed out, governments will have to start thinking about priorities for future sustainable development goals and the role of trade in achieving them. Trade has played a central role in lifting millions of people out of poverty in recent years and India, too, needs to gain from that.