The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is worried that global economic uncertainty is beginning to slow down growth in international freight demand.
IATA is expecting a challenging fourth quarter after October figures showed international freight demand grew just 3.6 per cent from the same period last year, down from a five per cent year-on-year growth in September.
The concerns emerged as the chief executive of logistics giant FedEx, Fred Smith, warned that global growth would not be enough to counter a US slowdown.
Smith said growth outside the US could cushion the shock but nothing could displace a slowdown in the world's biggest economy.
His comments came after FedEx issued its second profit warning in a month, citing flagging demand for US freight and rising fuel costs.
IATA's analysis said year-to-date growth was up four per cent but leading air freight indicators, such as semiconductor shipments and global manufacturing confidence levels, had fallen in recent months.
In the Asia-Pacific, cargo growth fell from seven per cent in September to 5.8 per cent in October.
¡°Air Cargo is still expanding but the industry has shifted gears to a slower pace of growth,'' IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani said.
IATA's figures show passenger demand continued to grow strongly in October, increasing 7.7 per cent compared to the previous year.
While this was down from the 8.2 per cent growth in September, the figures have yet to show an impact from a slowing economy in the US and elsewhere.
Asia-Pacific traffic was up 6.4 per cent on last year while the Middle East continued its explosive growth with a 20.9 per cent rise.
Average international passenger load factors were 76.5 per cent, down from record northern summer levels but still 1.2 percentage points higher than last year.
Passenger loads in the Asia-Pacific were slightly lower at 75.5 per cent.
IATA said that the higher load factors continued to boost airline revenues, operating efficiency and profitability, but it warned that the scope for further increases could prove a challenge as fleet deliveries ramp up.
Bisignani also noted the cyclical nature of the industry.
¡°The next few months will be critical to see if the impact of the credit crunch spreads from cargo to corporate and leisure travel,'' he said.
Airlines remain on track to show their first profits since 2001 but Bisignani said that industry debt and soaring oil prices meant cost control was more critical than ever.
He said strikes in the last month underlined the need to keep workers on side.
Some analysts believe that profitability among full service airlines has hit a cyclical peak although passenger growth is set to continue.
IATA represents about 240 airlines globally.
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