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Economists predict 2007 as "bumpy boom" year
POSTED: 10:10 a.m. EDT, January 16,2007

2007 will be a "bumpy boom" year, Standard Chartered Bank's (SCB) economists said Monday in their global and regional economic and interest rate outlook for 2007.

The SCB's British economist Gerard Lyons said that the world economy is booming and the growth is strong, while China and India are opening up.

Commodity markets are buoyant, new trade corridors are emerging, with intra-Asian trade increasing and inter-regional trade rising sharply, albeit from low levels, he said.

"Globally, and on the ground in many of our market, the picture looks good," he said in his report.

He figured that the economy emerges twin peaks in these years.

He noted that having boomed in 2006, emerging markets will slow this year because the United States slows, and will then see a pick-up in growth again in 2008.

He described the outlook of this year as a "roller coaster". Financial markets start the year in a positive mood, which is particularly so for global equity markets, he said.

Nicholas Kwan, regional head of research of Asia, said Asia 2007 is a "bumpy boom" year.

He forecast that the growth of China will be 9.7 percent in 2007 and 8.5 percent in 2008, the growth of India will be 7.5 percent and 8.0 percent respectively.

While the United States will increase the same 2.5 percent in the two years and Europe will increase 1.9 percent in 2007 and 2.1 percent in 2008.

For Singapore, 2007 will be interesting with the external sector decoupling from the domestic sector, global researcher Joseph Tan said.

"Headline gross domestic product (GDP) growth set to moderate from 7.7 percent in 2006 to 4-6 percent range in 2007," he said.

However, domestic sector will be different as the equity, property and labor market are in an upturn, he added.

A benign inflation outlook will keep interest rates in a tight range while the Singapore dollar stance could be shifted to neutral, he said.

From:Xinhua
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