Shares of Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile , Research) have been on a wild ride this week as investors worry that a probe into the company's options grants could mean big trouble for chief executive Steve Jobs.
But there is really little chance Jobs could be dumped by the company he co-founded and later revived, analysts said.
Concern about Jobs' future has been fanned by reports that he had hired a personal lawyer to represent him in the matter and that an internal investigation had found he received a 2001 option grant without the required board authorization.
"The issue here is: was there actual fraud on the part of Jobs himself and could that result in him having to leave the company?" said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management, which manages more than $1 billion.
Ghriskey, whose firm does not hold Apple shares, said the chances that Job could leave were slim, but the idea alone was enough to spook investors.
"If something like that were to occur, it would be a terrible thing for the company, it would be a terrible thing for the stock," Ghriskey said. "Apple would lose its vision."
Apple's stock fell as much as 6 percent on Wednesday but clawed back to close marginally higher as analysts told clients that concerns about the impact of the probe were overblown.
On Thursday afternoon, the shares were down about 0.5 percent after being off more than 2 percent.
The stock began its roller-coaster ride after legal trade publication The Recorder reported on Wednesday that federal prosecutors were looking at "apparently falsified" stock option documents in their probe of Apple's previous grants.
The publication also said Jobs had hired his own attorney to deal with investigations by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice.
That report was followed by an article in the Financial Times on Thursday that said Apple gave Jobs 7.5 million stock options in 2001 without authorization of the company's board.
Records purporting to show that a full board meeting had taken place to approve the remuneration were later falsified, the paper said. Jobs later returned the stock options.
An Apple spokesman declined to comment and calls to Apple's 2001 board members -- Bill Campbell, Gareth Chang, Millard Drexler, Larry Ellison, Arthur Levinson and Jerry York -- were not returned.
WAITING FOR THE OUTCOME
Apple said in October that it had cleared Jobs of any wrongdoing related to option grants, blaming two other managers who it said had left the company.
Apple's corporate governance policies have come under scrutiny by investors in the past, and records show that Apple failed to have a compensation committee in place for more than a year prior to the 2001 grant to Jobs.
On Friday, the company is expected to make a regulatory filing that could shed more light on the options probe.
Until then, analysts said any talk of wrongdoing by Jobs was going to trouble investors.
"Any time implications or further details surrounding the options investigation come up, people get concerned about what the ultimate outcome may be," said Shannon Cross, an analyst with Soleil-Cross Research.
She and other analysts downplayed the chances that the probe could ultimately push Jobs out of the company.
"We believe there is less than a 5 percent chance that Steve Jobs would have been personally involved," Piper Jaffray Gene Munster said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
Jobs has been running Apple since 1997, when he returned as CEO on an interim basis. He eventually brought Apple back from a slump, transforming it into one of the most revered tech companies thanks to products like its iPod media player.
Apple shares have climbed about 58 percent since hitting a 52-week low of $50.16 on July 14.
That compares with a gain of 15 percent for rival Dell Inc. (DELL.O: Quote, Profile , Research) and a gain of 15 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index during the same period.
The next round of key Apple product announcements could come next month when it hosts its annual Macworld Expo.
Some investors are holding on to Apple shares on hopes that Jobs will unveil an iPhone at Macworld, a product that would meld a mobile handset with an iPod, said Jon Najarian, co-founder of optionmonster.com.
(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago, and Yinka Adegoke, Tim McLaughlin and Chris Reiter in New York.)