If oil prices continue to trade at $130/bbl or higher, then major turbulence is ahead for the U.S. airline industry, with several airlines being forced into bankruptcy and some even being liquidated, a new study predicts.
"At current oil prices, several large and small U.S. airlines will default on their obligations to creditors beginning at the end of 2008 and early 2009," the study performed by AirlineForecasts for the Business Travel Coalition proclaims.
Oil at $130/bbl will increase yearly airline costs by $30 billion, but airlines will only be able to offset $4 billion of that through increased fares and incremental fees.
"If oil prices stay anywhere near $130/bbl, [then] all major legacy airlines will be in default on various debt covenants by the end of 2008 or early 2009," the study says.
Among its findings:
* The top 10 airlines will spend nearly $25 billion in higher fuel costs this year, compared to 2007, when jet fuel averaged $2.11/gal.
* Earnings for the top 10 U.S. airlines were less than $4 billion last year and 2007 is the only year this decade that they showed combined profitability. "The group could lose as much as $9 billion over the next 12 months if the current range of oil prices holds," the study found. |
