Airbus is brimming with confidence these days. Despite predictions of a sales slump in 2008, the manufacturer forecast a demand for 24,262 new passenger and cargo aircraft valued at $2.8 trillion over the next 20 years.
Airbus gave its upbeat assessment following the release of its latest Global Market Forecast for the years 2007 through 2026.
Among the new aircraft deliveries will be a need for 877 new freighters. By 2026, 3,778 freighters will be needed, including 2,901 conversions. Many will be widebodies including the A330-200 freighter, said Airbus Americas CEO Barry Eccleston.
Air freight is forecast to grow faster than passenger traffic, with freight tonne kilometers increasing annually by 5.8 percent, Airbus said.
Eccleston offered the following on the company's Very Large Aircraft during the briefing. "There will be a freighter version of the A380," Eccleston said. "But we won't restart the freighter program until we've met the challenge of putting the A380 passenger aircraft in service." Singapore Airlines is operating two A380s.
The A380 will be most valuable at capacity-constrained airports, such as London Heathrow, and Hong Kong International, Airbus said. Ninety-three capacity constrained airports represents 64 percent of worldwide traffic and the A380 would help relieve that congestion. Hence the Airbus slogan: "Bigger is Better."
The doubling of passenger traffic worldwide over the next 15 years, the increasing demand in China for domestic and international service and accelerating deregulation there, the growth of low cost carriers, and the emergence of 21 new markets were reasons Airbus gave for the increased demand for aircraft.
Eccleston dismisses suggestions of overconfidence, saying, "When we look at the rising demand [over the forecast period] we don't see an overcapacity issue."
While India and China are the fastest growing markets, North America remains the most fertile ground for new deliveries, said Laurent Rouaud, vice president market forecasts and research, with the need for 5,210 single-aisles airliners, 1,111 twin-aisle and 163 very large aircraft. vv |
