Delta Air Lines would face an unprecedented airline anti-trust review under a merger proposal with either Northwest Airlines or United Airlines.
Industry consultants, lawyers, and former government officials agree either merger would present the US Justice Department with its toughest airline test. And with a crucial election year underway, Congress would certainly weigh in.
A Delta merger review would include serious scrutiny of large international route networks. It would also test a popular assumption that the merger parties would get more favourable treatment from the Bush administration compared with a possible Democratic one in 2009.
It is reported that Delta management wants to begin formal merger talks with Northwest and United.
For sheer size and reach, No. 3 Delta hooking up with either No.2 United or No. 5 Northwest is only comparable to an earlier bid by United to swallow US Airways. That attempt collapsed in 2001 after a lengthy anti-trust review, completed by the Bush Justice Department, raised serious competition concerns.
All experts agreed Congress would seek to have influence. Lawmakers - worrying about the impact on airline service to their districts, jobs, and ticket prices - could not halt a merger outright. However, they could pressure the White House and anti-trust enforcers.
Delta appealed to lawmakers in its successful effort to turn back a hostile merger bid from US Airways Group last year.
A merger between Delta and Northwest, or with United, would be unprecedented, because of their size and the fact that all three carriers are financially stable.
The paramount concern for the government would be the market share of a United-Delta or Northwest-Delta combination.
Delta and United together comprise nearly a quarter of domestic service based on passenger traffic. Delta and Northwest account for about 18 percent.
Dominance on specific routes and at key airports would also be carefully scrutinised. Delta commands 53 percent of business at its Atlanta hub and a third of flights at Salt Lake City and Cincinnati.
United's share at Chicago's O'Hare airport is 40 percent, 42 percent at Denver and San Francisco, and 21 percent at Washington Dulles. Northwest has 66 percent of the business at Minneapolis, 60 percent at Detroit, and half of all flights at Memphis.
Anti-trust officials characteristically would seek divestment at certain airports, depending on the merger combination, and target overlapping routes.
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