THE International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its forecasts and sees slower lower growth in the aviation sector next year, with the logistics market being the first to feel the impact of what may well be a global liquidity crisis, reports the UK's Transport Intelligence agency.
IATA now reduces its combined profit estimates for member airlines from US $7.8 billion to $5billion, mostly because of the rising price of oil, but also because it believes a "credit crunch" will reduce demand.
IATA now sees 4.3 per cent growth for airfreight, down from its 4.8 per cent prediction of October.
While falling demand will cool fuel prices, said IATA, the association still believes oil costs will remain high at US$78 per barrel, resulting in a 30 per cent increase in operating costs.
Recent profitability, which has been rising 5-15 per cent a year, has been the result of robust demand across all markets. But IATA sees demand falling, because of a plunge in consumer confidence in the United States.
This will impact on load factors, said IATA. Compensating, said Transport Intelligence, is the surge of new capacity as more fuel-efficient aircraft come on line, significantly impacting on per tonne kilometre earnings.
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